The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
With the Iran war escalating sharply and crisis deepening in the global energy market, India on Monday unveiled a coordinated plan to support exporters and shippers caught in the fallout.
Brent crude oil prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) - up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels - in the worst-case scenario if the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
Fathali further stated that Tehran has instructed its embassy in India to facilitate the Indian government, ensuring smooth operations amid the ongoing regional conflict.
The trade relationship between India and the United States has been strained by the imposition of 25% tariff by the US on Indian goods.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
There are roughly 2,000 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying more than 20,000 seafarers, according to the International Maritime Organisation, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
If TVK MLAs and ministers are perceived as clean, or demonstrably cleaner than their predecessors, the credibility dividend will be enormous. The voter will feel rewarded, points out Ramesh Menon.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Titan, Eternal, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Hindustan Unilever were among the biggest laggards. Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints and Tech Mahindra were the gainers.
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas on Friday reiterated that India has sufficient stock of crude oil, petrol and diesel, while ensuring an uninterrupted supply of LNG and LPG despite disruptions caused by the ongoing West Asia conflict.
OPEC, which has oil reserves that constitute 80 percent of the total global reserves, is unwilling to increase output to bring down oil prices. This makes OPEC too responsible for the rising oil prices, apart from the weak dollar. OPEC has said that world oil demand this year is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels daily to an average of 87 million barrels per day. As OPEC's output remains insufficient to cover rising demand from Asian region, oil prices will tend to rise.
According to the 'American Express Business Travel Monitor' which tracks and analyses published airfares on a quarterly basis, 'although fares moderated in the fourth quarter, the influences of rising oil prices and economic growth in the region are too strong to keep prices steady'.
Responding to concerns raised by Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri said it is the foremost priority of the government that the kitchens of over 33 crore families, especially the poor and the underprivileged, do not face any shortage of gas.
The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified sharply with attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf, even as US President Donald Trump said he had cautioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against targeting Iran's key South Pars Gas Field.
According to sources, the Indian Navy warships are on standby to provide assistance or help required by merchant vessels.
As global tensions put pressure on the cost of crude oil, sending petrol prices above 1 a litre across the UK, This is Money investment writer Philip Scott investigates how investors can profit from rising oil prices.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
Oil prices hit two-and-a-half-year highs in Asian trade on Friday as violence continued to wrack the Middle East and threatened to spread to other bigger oil producers in the region, analysts said.
Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has launched development projects worth 253 crore in Jind district, focusing on irrigation, infrastructure, health, and water supply.
'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 declined around 4.5 per cent each since the start of the West Asia conflict.
US crude oil futures edged down on Tuesday after hitting an 8-week high of $82 a barrel on Monday.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
Making sense of the international crude market is incredibly hard.
India's plans to ration the consumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) - in response to reduction in their import owing to war in West Asia - may fall short of what is needed to meet domestic needs.
It may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel's disregard of the serious undermining of India's energy security, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Economics and politics both have major roles in determining oil prices.
Several non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are observing an increase in early-stage delinquencies within their micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loan portfolios, primarily driven by supply chain disruptions and escalating raw material costs exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
"We have the toughest sanctions ever imposed. But on oil, we want to go a little bit slow because I don't want to drive the oil prices in the world up," Trump told reporters.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Eternal declined by 4.02 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance (3.88 per cent), Sun Pharma, InterGlobe Aviation, Trent, Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Finserv. HDFC Bank emerged as the only gainer from the pack.
India restricts subsidised LPG connections for households with piped natural gas (PNG) to ensure equitable distribution and address global energy supply concerns, pushing for faster PNG adoption.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Unless there is a sharp uptick in oil prices, Fed may push back rate hike
Indian banks are urging the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reconsider its new $100 million cap on net open foreign-exchange positions, warning that the directive could lead to significant mark-to-market (MTM) losses and force an accelerated unwinding of trades, potentially impacting FY26 earnings.
Let us start with ourselves. If we can reduce our LPG consumption by half, the problem is solved. Reduce wastage. Alter eating styles. Diversify methods of food preparation, suggests Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as the market prepared for a gradual increase of Iranian exports into an already oversupplied market from 2016.
